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The water crisis, or what is hereinafter referred to as drought, has become a systemic and crucial problem in several regions in Indonesia. Indonesia is an agricultural country, where the presence of water is very influential so that drought can become a natural disaster if it starts to cause an area to lose its source of income due to disturbances in agriculture and the ecosystem it causes. Drought  forecasting can provide support solutions in preventing the impact of drought. In this paper, we compare the performance of wavelet fuzzy logic and the support vector machine (SVM) as a supervised learning method for drought forecasting in East Nusa Tenggara. This study examines the monthly rainfall data for 1999-2015 which is the basis for calculating the drought index based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI value used is SPI-3 at a station in East Nusa Tenggara. The performance of models is compareded on R2. The results showed that R2 of wavelet fuzzy logic is smaller than one of SVMVM is better than the wavelet fuzzy logic for forecasting SPI value of drought in East Nusa Tenggara.


Drought forecasting, SPI, Wavelet Fuzzy Logic, Support Vector Machine

Article Details

How to Cite
Sain, H., & Fadri, F. (2024). Predicting Drought in East Nusa Tenggara: A Novel Approach Using Wavelet Fuzzy Logic and Support Vector Machines. Parameter: Journal of Statistics, 4(1), 23-29.


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