Corn Production Exploration of Central Sulawesi Using Multiplicative Winter Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22487/27765660.2022.v2.i2.15943Keywords:
corn, exploration, forecasting, multiplicative, winterAbstract
Corn is a very important food ingredient after rice. Central Sulawesi corn production data is in the form of time series data which every year in certain months increases or decreases in production. Therefore, the method that can be used for forecasting is the winter multiplicative method. This study aims to build the best model for forecasting corn production in Central Sulawesi using the winter multiplicative method. The results of this study are used to explore corn production for the next period. Modeling is done by selecting the best combination of parameters and the best combination of model parameters is obtained with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 18% with a value of α = 0,5; γ = 0,1; and β = 0,1. The data plot of the forecasted corn production shows fluctuations which indicate seasonal factors and trends in it
References
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). (2018). Tanaman Pangan. Indonesia: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Hameed, H. (2015). Smoothing Techniques for Time Series Forecasting. Gazimagusa: Eastern Mediterranean University
Hanke, J.E dan Wichern, D.W. (2005). Business Forecasting Eight Edition. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall.
Kementerian Pertanian. (2018). Buletin Pasokan & Harga Pangan Tanaman Jagung. Jakarta: Kementerian Pertanian.
Makridakis, Spyros, G., Wheelwright, Steven, C., McGee, Victor, E. (1999). Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan Volume 2. Jakarta: Erlangga.
Santoso, S. (2005). Business Forecasting: Metode Peramalan Bisnis Masa Kini dengan MINITAB dan SPSS. Jakarta: PT. Elex Media Komputindo.
